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Acknowledge the impact of hindsight bias on our judgments from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions by Rolf Dobelli
Hindsight bias is a common cognitive distortion that affects our ability to evaluate past decisions objectively. We tend to believe that events were more predictable than they actually were, once we know the outcome. This can lead us to overestimate our own foresight and ignore the role of chance or uncertainty in the decision-making process. When we look back on a decision that turned out well, we often attribute our success to skill or knowledge that we may not have actually possessed at the time. This can inflate our confidence in our abilities and make us more likely to take unnecessary risks in the future. On the other hand, when a decision results in failure, we may be quick to blame external factors or bad luck, rather than acknowledging our own role in the outcome. It is important to recognize the influence of hindsight bias on our judgments in order to make better decisions in the future. By understanding that our perceptions of past events are colored by what we know now, we can learn to separate the outcome from the decision-making process itself. This can help us avoid falling into the trap of overconfidence or self-blame, and instead focus on improving our decision-making skills based on the information available at the time.- By acknowledging the impact of hindsight bias on our judgments, we can become more aware of the limitations of our own thinking and make more rational decisions in the future. This can help us avoid repeating past mistakes and improve our ability to navigate uncertainty and complexity in our lives.
