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Our tendency to attribute success to skill leads to overconfidence from "summary" of Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
When we achieve success, we tend to attribute it to our own skills and abilities. This tendency can lead to overconfidence, as we may believe that our success is a result of our superior talent or intelligence. We may overlook the role that luck or randomness played in our success, leading us to overestimate our own abilities. This overconfidence can have negative consequences, as it can lead us to take greater risks or make unwise decisions. If we believe that our success is solely due to our own skill, we may be more likely to engage in behaviors that are risky or reckless. We may also be less likely to seek feedback or advice from others, as we may believe that we already know all the answers. In reality, success is often influenced by factors beyond our control. Random events, luck, and external circumstances can all play a role in determining outcomes. By recognizing the role that randomness plays in our success, we can avoid falling into the trap of overconfidence. We can remain humble and open-minded, acknowledging that our achievements are not solely the result of our own efforts.- We can make more informed decisions and avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence. We can learn to appreciate the role that luck plays in our lives and remain vigilant against the dangers of attributing success solely to our own abilities. Ultimately, by embracing uncertainty and acknowledging the role of randomness in our lives, we can avoid being fooled by our own success.
